There is a big advantage of developing a baseball betting strategy that uses the first five innings, also called “the first half”. That your fate is in the hands of the two starting pitchers. This means that when placing your baseball bets, you can easily ignore other more random factors such as the dugouts and both bullpens.
Magnify your advantage
First of all, using “the first half” strategy can have a greater advantage than you would in the entire game. It is because the situation where you enjoy that advantage is magnified. If there is an error in the line, those late innings will most likely minimize the error. Assuming the error does not originate in the bullpen.
The second part also introduces random elements that are beyond your control and can cost you the victory in baseball betting. Matches with a tied score or those in which one team wins easily have different dynamics at the end of the game. Wind conditions can change, substitutions, and double changes are made. At the beginning of the game, you can compare a known line-up with a known opponent and not worry about whether the rest of the game will interfere with the outcome of your bet.
This is also true for other sports. If you know that a team is likely to dominate the early stages of a match (especially the starting five in basketball or the early strategy in football), you can often gain a much greater advantage by betting on the first half or first quarter of the match before the situation becomes random and the teams change.
Secondary betting markets
The second advantage is the benefit of always focusing on a secondary betting market, rather than on one of the main lines of the game. As with team totals and alternative race lines, you should focus on the first half line and study it.
This allows you to find opportunities if the line in the first half does not follow the money line or match total in the way it normally should. Unlike race lines, there is little doubt that such differences exist. The big question is which ones are important and how much each one is worth.
The best time to consider a first half bet is when a particularly good pitcher starts with a bad bullpen or vice versa.
In fact, you’ll probably do a lot more analysis of the line you’re thinking of betting on than the bookmaker does when they post the lineup. The bookmaker will apply a formula and hope that it’s appropriate enough, but can’t afford to offer an unusual line until someone bets.
Headline Pitcher vs. Bullpens
The most important factor is the relationship between the starting pitcher and the bullpens. A good bullpen helps only in the second half, while a quality starter is mostly good for the first half.
When you notice that a particularly good pitcher starts with a bad bullpen or vice versa, that will be an excellent time to consider implementing a baseball betting strategy in the first half. Knowing how to properly compensate for this could allow a disciplined gambler to benefit in both situations. He could bet on fair lines when he has an advantage, as well as get value without risk when the lines have moved too far apart.
Of course, to do either of these things you need a guide that explains what the first part lines in baseball betting are supposed to be. Having five innings instead of nine reduces the advantage of the best team. In return, you get the advantage of your usually better starter and the small mathematical advantage that comes from ties.
The net result is that the favorites to win the match are usually a little less favorite during the first five innings. This effect remains small until about -150 (1.67) and becomes large at -200 (1.50). It doesn’t seem to matter if the favorite team is the home team or the away team.
The totals for the first half are more complicated because, in baseball, the numbers can be anything but equal. The fact that 7 and 7½ are almost as different as 7½ and 8½ makes it difficult to formulate a precise rule of thumb for converting a game total into a first-half total.
The last few innings of a match usually have a lower scoring average than the first five, and there are only four innings (plus extra innings), so it is likely that more than half of the runs will be made in the first five innings. The result is that the total for the first half will be slightly higher than half the total for the match, once all the figures are adjusted to smooth out the irregularities.
Get good numbers quickly
As with all conversions, the best way to get good numbers very quickly is to list the betting lines offered by any bookmaker for baseball bets. You can then use these historical lines as a guide for future games. You can even use this technique to find out the market’s perception of a particular team.
For example, observe the first half lines offered at an online bookmaker site over two days. You can get an accurate ranking of the respective bullpens in MLB.
As usual, the usefulness of a line comes down to how well you understand it and what a good figure would be. If it allows you to bet for what you like and against what you don’t like, what is the limit and how thin the offered limit is. Where thin means less commission or retention.
Always betting on the best price
Top betting sites will often have the best odds on both sides of the equation. They offer both first part and total odds of -105 ($105 bet to win $100), instead of the usual -110 odds ($110 bet to win $100).
Most bettors have learned that betting on the main line of the game is the way to get the best odds. While this is true in a traditional “full commission” bookmaker, you can most likely find a good figure no matter where you want to bet. In addition to the lines posted the night before the games, users can now choose from one money line, one total, two race lines, and two team totals. As well as one money line and a first part total all of these low-commission options.
In fact, maximizing your use of all available resources to find the best odds will pay off with every bet you make.
As long as you don’t bet too much money and choose your line carefully, it’s one of the easiest ways to increase your potential winnings by betting on the best available price.